Hi, Chris maybe you want to update your last letter to me?
I was 13 days early on my prediction.
Hi Brian,
Yes, understand it. (my model of death predictions)
Both are estimates of course.
I don’t believe we will ever get to an average of 60% infection rate in the US.
That is too many deaths.
People will self-quarantine even more, well before we get there.
Most areas still have less than 5% incidence rate with some states hardly infected.
The highest published testing positivity rate I have seen was in Flatbush with 45%.
If we don’t have a vaccine,
the virus will become endemic and smolder for years with occasional outbreak hot spots that will need to be stamped out.
Chris
My response:
I never said how long it will take to get to 2 million COVID deaths.
There will be waves and surges if no vaccine, lockdown or 3 t's national plan You think people will lockdown on their own. So far no evidence that will happen.
If it becomes endemic it will still kill 2 million people.
Herd immunity requires 60 to 70% of immune people.
At that point COVID may become endemic.
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