Friday, June 19, 2020

My Microbiologist friend thinks Covid will cool down

Hi, Chris maybe you want to update your last letter to me?


I was 13 days early on my prediction.






Hi Brian,
Yes, understand it. (my model of death predictions)
 Both are estimates of course. 
I don’t believe we will ever get to an average of 60% infection rate in the US. 
That is too many deaths.
 People will self-quarantine even more, well before we get there. 
Most areas still have less than 5% incidence rate with some states hardly infected. 
The highest published testing positivity rate I have seen was in Flatbush with 45%. 
If we don’t have a vaccine, 
the virus will become endemic and smolder for years with occasional outbreak hot spots that will need to be stamped out. 
Chris 

My response:
I never said how long it will take to get to 2 million COVID deaths.
There will be waves and surges if no vaccine, lockdown or 3 t's national plan You think people will lockdown on their own.  So far no evidence that will happen.  

If it becomes endemic it will still kill 2 million people. 
Herd immunity requires 60 to 70% of immune people. 
At that point COVID may become endemic.











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