Number of Covid deaths if we don't get a vaccine

If there is no lockdown or  vaccine or
National Plan of testing, tracing and treatment:

328.2 million is the population of USA.

60% of the population is:

196,920,000

(number of people that need to be infected by COVID before there is herd immunity.)

Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% 

1.4 X 196,920,000 =  2,756,880 deaths

Which is the number of covid deaths if we don't get a vaccine

UPDATE by my son:

"using today's numbers...

USA Case Fatality Rate = 120,686 deaths / 2,262,602 cases = 5.3% based on todays data

World Case Fatality Rate = 455,557 deaths / 8,567,280 cases = 5.3 %

Let's assume CFR is close to the 1.4% found on May 1st to calculate how many cases are "actually" out there.

USA  =  ((( 0.014 x total cases = 120,686 deaths ))) = 8,620,428 cases

World = ((( 0.014 x total cases = 455,557 deaths ))) = 32,539,785 cases

Hypothetical herd immunity at 60% of USA population is 197 million. 

This means 188.4 million cases and 2.6 million deaths to go before herd immunity. 

Let's assume CFR is close to 0.9% to calculate how many cases are "actually" out there.

USA  =  ((( 0.009 x total cases = 120,686 deaths ))) = 13,409,555 cases...still far from herd immunity."

you can inflate the numbers even more by using deaths divided by known recovered. 120,688 deaths / 930,781 recovered = 13% Infection Fatality Rate"

From Cato Library link

"This worst‐​case simulation came up with 2.2 million deaths by simply assuming that 81% of the population gets infected ­–268 million people– and that 0.9% of them die. It did not assume health systems would have to be overwhelmed to result in so many deaths, though it did make that prediction.

Neither the high infection rate nor the high fatality rate holds up under scrutiny."